Experts predict that UK electricity prices are currently unlikely to fall below pre-2022 levels for well over a decade, highlighting the critical importance of investing in low cost renewable energy.

Power prices have fallen significantly in the UK since the historic peaks seen in mid-2022, which were caused in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to the latest in-depth forecasting by energy consultancy Cornwall Insight, prices are predicted to continue coming down over the coming years thanks to low cost renewables replacing gas power. The faster renewable energy expansion takes place, the faster prices will fall.

Renewables boom meets demand explosion

However, as we approach 2030, the transition to more affordable renewable energy will come up against the increasing electrification of the economy in areas like heating and transport. In order to meet this increasing power demand during periods of low renewable energy generation, ever more expensive gas will need to play a role in filling the gaps, Cornwall Insight warned.

To compound these concerns, Great Britain is also expected to export more power to Europe over the next decade, contributing to prices levelling out at above pre-pandemic levels long into the future.

Power Price Forecasts To 2030 (Source Cornwall Insight Benchmark Power Curve)

‘There’s a danger that we get complacent’

The forecast underlines the critical importance of being prepared for the long-term as the UK progresses towards its net zero goals.

“The challenges of rising power demand, increasing exports and reliance on gas continue to keep our power price forecasts above historical levels for many years to come,” explained Tom Edwards, senior modeller at Cornwall Insight. “Decision-makers [must] fully comprehend the urgent and pressing need for continued investment in renewable energy sources and innovative solutions. The time to act is now.”

Speaking to the BBC recently, energy giant Centrica’s CEO Chris O’Shea concurred, warning people against assuming things will return to normal now that prices are coming down: “Prices are back down to pre-invasion levels, but they’re still two-and-a-half times the long-run average, and that’s really driven by supply and demand.”

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