That is the conclusion of analysis commissioned by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank, which suggests that a six-year payback on rooftop solar leaves a likely remaining lifespan of 19 years when the electricity generated is essentially free.
At the same time, the cost of solar farms has reached just £54/MWh (5.4p/kWh) – far lower than the cost of gas even before the current energy crisis. Solar farms combined with battery storage are already competitive with gas at £82/MWh (8.2p/kWh) and are expected to cost just £66/MWh (6.6p/kWh) in four years’ time. These batteries will enable solar farms to supply electricity even after dark.
“The story of solar in Britain is one part of a much bigger story of global momentum behind the net zero transition,” said Gareth Redmond-King, international analyst at ECIU. “Putin’s war against Ukraine has turbo-charged Europe’s efforts to get off Russian gas and led to record levels of solar generation in some countries this summer. And the two biggest economies in the world [United States and China] are spending big on cheaper, cleaner renewables. Markets are driving this boom, and consumers can be the big winners.”
Solar deployment has also surged in Europe, with summer 2022 seeing solar PV generate a record 12 per cent of the EU’s electricity, including nearly a quarter of the Netherlands’ power and nearly a fifth of Germany’s.
Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) now predicts that solar PV capacity will almost triple over the 2022-2027 period, surpassing coal to become the world’s largest source of power by capacity. While China is expected to remain the dominant player in solar manufacturing and supply, its share in the market could drop by some 15 per cent by 2027 as investment ramps up in other countries like the US and India.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol commented: “Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth as countries seek to capitalise on their energy security benefits. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the previous 20 years.”